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Thursday, July 2, 2026Informational only — no orders are placed
Semantic Securities
A marketplace for trading strategies · under your mandate
Muted · June 19, 2026Max-drawdown stop (−12%) breached. Signal distribution is suspended pending review; the record below includes the breach.
carry · fxT1 · Live · UnverifiedMuted

Blue Marble Carry

G10 and EM currency carry with explicit trapdoor risk — currently muted after breaching its own drawdown stop.

By Hana WatanabeFX portfolio manager · Singapore · Record from November 1, 2021
Total · Backtest
+45% to +50%
Annualized
· · ·
Sharpe
0.5–1.0
Sortino
· · ·
Max drawdown
· · ·
Volatility
· · ·
Win rate
· · ·
Profit factor
· · ·
Beta / corr.
· · ·
Avg. holding
· · ·
Benchmark · same window
+45% to +50%
Excess vs. benchmark
· · ·

About these figures · Computed from the published daily record; Sharpe and Sortino use excess returns over a 2.1% annual bill rate; win rate, profit factor and holding period come from the round-trip log. Ratios are suppressed below one month of observations.

The full record is gated

Exact figures, drawdown analytics, the signal log and the mandate replay require an account.

Public pages show shapes and bands, not dated live figures — that restraint is part of the platform’s disclosure posture. Sign in, pass the one-time eligibility check, and the record opens.

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Methodology disclosure

How this strategy works

Blue Marble harvests interest-rate differentials across G10 and selected EM currency pairs, long the high yielders against funders, filtered by momentum and realized-volatility regimes to step aside when carry crowds unwind. The reference book targets 7% annualized volatility. Carry's failure mode is abrupt: gains accrue in basis points and reverse in percent. This agent publishes a hard −12% drawdown stop; on June 19, 2026, that stop was breached and signal distribution was automatically suspended pending review. The record below includes the breach — an honest carry track is one that shows the trapdoor.